The Scorecard: 2025 Beat The Streak Picks
The Streak Wasn't Broken, But the Numbers Still Matter.
I’ll assume you’re familiar with how MLB’s Beat The Streak works and how my model helps pick the most probable hitters each day of the MLB regular season. If not, then I will point you right here.
Now, there’s a few different ways to present these results, but I’ll start with the topline results.1
The average predicted probability for the top 20 players each day was about 68%, and they came through about 70% of the time. However, overall averages aren’t really the point, because you probably weren’t picking the 17th-best option. So here’s a better way to view this data that shows how the top tier performed:
The table above splits the predictions made by the model across the entire season into 12 buckets. Each bucket represents a range of predicted probabilities that a batter will record at least one hit in a given game. For example, the first bucket spans 71.7% to 79.3%, meaning a player predicted at 73% would be included in that group. For each bucket, the table shows the model’s average predicted probability, the actual hit rate observed, the resulting calibration error, and the number of observations in that bucket.
At the top of the board, the model missed by just 0.7%. Overall, it was reasonably well calibrated, with most buckets showing actual outcomes slightly exceeding predictions. For this project, that bias is generally preferable, though my goal next year will be to tighten it without introducing overconfidence.
I’ve also included the top 6 bins as dot bars (is that a real name for a chart type?), with each dot representing a single model pick and its eventual outcome. The bins are labeled with their rate of correct picks. I probably did 30 iterations of this visualization before landing here, and I’ll say it’s surprisingly fun to hover over the individual dots and see the guys who helped — and ended — my streaks this year.
Because I’m interested (and some of you might be as well), I included a “BTS Legends” table featuring the top five qualifying batters by game hit rate in 2025.
Witt Jr., Bichette, and Ohtani being on this list come as no surprise to me, but I don’t believe I picked Naylor or Bohm a single time this season. I must’ve picked Bobby Witt Jr. 100 times this season, and for good reason: if you’d stuck with him alone, you could’ve beaten the streak twice with games to spare.
Maybe next season someone will beat the streak, or better yet, do it using my model. Speaking of next season, the new model isn’t done yet, and March 25th is coming fast. I hope you’ll join me again for another attempt to beat the streak in 2026 — however fruitless it may be.
Model outputs from the first two months of the season were not recorded.